Saturday, June 15, 2013

Vote distribution indicates no rigging

Unlike the last election, after which 45 million votes were counted in a few hours; this time the tally is tickling in very slowly.

Amusingly, the News Agency taht I refered to as False or Farce News last time, has been behaving in a very measured way in the past few days. From over a million votes announced, 47% have gone to the reformist, 13% to the independents (Rezayee & Gharazy) and 39% to the three shades of the conservatives: Ghalibaf (the protofascist but popular mayor of Tehran promoting safety and power first economy next) has 18%; Jalili (the fascist, who talks as if abstract jiberish, has crazier followers and makes me wonder how exactly he has been negotiation with lady Ashton ) has 14% and Velayati (the mellow John-Hopkins educated pediatrician turned minister of foreign affairs for god know how long) the rest.

Some reformists are already claiming victory. Some others, impatient with the announcement, are getting into a pouting mode that Rohani (the reformist) must come out a winner in the first round with over 60%. Iranian presidency needs over 50% of total votes, it is likely there will be a second stage of election between the 1st and the 2nd--without any rigging. It is also not unlikely that Rohani would win the first round, but within a 5% margine

I argue that if the "regime" wanted to rig the vote, and if there was a will to engineer results and "appoint" a conservative, then Khamenei would have twisted the three conservatives to coalition. The conservatives did not coalesce. Au contraire, the went at each other, spelling each other's beans, like opposing politicians do!

The fact that there was no united conservative front makes me suspect that Khamenei himself has voted for Rohani. He did present himself, during the debate, as the more capable one.

Curiously, after casting his vote, after making sure that he did not give a hoot about what the west thought about due process in Iranian election, the "supreme leader" stated that no one, not even his family knew who his favorite candidate was. He then insisted that people's vote was entrusted to them and that the ministry on interior had to guard people's vote in good faith.

I don't want to jump the gun, but I suspect Iran's next president will be its former Nuclear negotiator, a doctor of Law, and the former head of the High National Security Council ... Rowhani is not a reformist, but he was endorsed by all who stand on the "opposition" side of the fence.

This is to be a win-win election. Khamenei has already got to show the world that > 75% of Iranians DO want to express themselves through the existing system (but he also acknowledged the NEED FOR CHANGE.) This will give Iran power at the 5+1 negotiation table; it will also disarm the aggressors who were ready to go "liberate" the "great oppressed Iranians" a la Argo!

The reformists won too, because they demonstrated the resolve of their unity, the steadiness of their resolve, and their maturity to put aside all difference and work towards a common goal. According to citizen reports, this election was held without controversy.  In all polls, n Iran and abroad, I heard stories of HOPE and positive attitude. It is obvious that Ahmadinejad is going to be slapped with all blame for the past ... the outgoing little man voted in silence today, but uncharacteristically late, towards the ending hours of election. I wondered if he was forced to vote, but I suspect he will not be invited to dinner with Khamenei anytime soon ...

An Era of political theater (Ahmadinejad's grotesque/macabre) has ended, and I wonder what Netanyahu is going to cook now to hype Iran's "imminent threat"!

P.S. Some facebook comment: "When all around you are in chaos and you are able to maintain a sense of order, you have won. My respect to the people of Iran, no matter who wins." 


Pedestrian said...

I've been watching Iranian TV all day, and the establishment's obsession (from the leader to election officials to IRIB) with insisting again and again that the elections are "clean" makes me chuckle. This is to me, proof that the opposition (the reformists, the people, etc) have actually forced these suckers to RESPOND. In some unquantifiable way, I consider that an accomplishment. Beh goh khordan oftadeh boodan :D ... Just the fact that the opposition sets the tone for what is said in the establishment's interactions with the public, speaks to a maturity in this dialogue that makes me proud.

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